John's Florida Real Estate Blog


Builder Confidence Continues Downward In September 2007

September 18, 2007 - Concerns about the substantial inventory of new homes for sale and the effects that deepening mortgage market problems are having on buyer demand caused builder confidence to decline for a seventh consecutive month in September, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI dropped two points to 20, tying its record low reached in January of 1991 (the series began in January 1985).

“Builders are expressing concern that home buyers are getting spooked by the many headlines they are seeing on mortgage market issues and their continuing effects on the housing market and home prices,” said NAHB President Brian Catalde, a home builder from El Segundo, Calif. “Indications are that consumers are trying to time the bottom of the market before making their purchase, which historically can be a very tricky thing to do and is typically not an advisable strategy. The bottom line is, with the inventory situation what it is and the selection of units and deals to be had, now is a very good time to buy a home.”

“Certainly problems across the mortgage finance arena are taking their toll on buyer demand, which is weighing heavily on builder confidence measures,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “Even so, availability of mortgages under the government-supported part of the market remains very good, and the long-term fundamentals of housing are solid in terms of projected household formations, income growth and other factors. We now expect to see home sales return to an upward path by the second quarter of 2008 and we expect housing starts to begin a gradual recovery process by the third quarter of next year. At that point, the market will have substantial growth potential.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as either “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Two out of three component indexes declined in September. The index gauging current single-family home sales declined two points to 20, while the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months fell five points to 26. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 16 for the month.

All four regions of the country reported declines in their September HMI readings. The Northeast posted a three-point decline to 26, while the Midwest posted a single-point decline to 13, the South posted a two-point decline to 22, and the West posted a four-point decline to 18.

SOURCE: National Association of Home Builders Press Release

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at:

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: 

John Elwell - REALTOR


Bill Nye Realty, Inc.


Licensed in Florida


Comment balloon 0 commentsJohn Elwell • September 19 2007 04:33PM
Builder Confidence Continues Downward In September 2007
September 18, 2007 - Concerns about the substantial inventory of new homes for sale and the effects that deepening mortgage market problems are having on buyer demand caused builder confidence to decline for a seventh consecutive month in September,… more
US Commerce Department Says New Home Construction the Lowest in Over…
Today the US Commerce Department released information concerning the housing market. Building permits were down 5. 9% from July 2007, and down 24. 5% from August 2006. More particularly, single-family building permits were down 8. 1% from July 2007. &… more
NOW PRICED TO SELL!! Beautiful & Spacious Home For Sale in…
This home in the Grandview Grove subdivision, just to the southwest of Dade City, Florida has been PRICED TO SELL FAST AT ONLY $279, 900 This is a very small special development of under 20 large homes on 1 acre lots. You do not find that in many… more
Recession Fears Cause Federal Reserve To Drop Key Interest Rate
Today, September 18, 2007 the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate that banks charge each other by a half a point, the first drop of this rate in 4 years. This was done to prop up the slumping housing market and head off any possibility of a… more
Renters Feel the Housing Pinch, Not Just Homeowners
Number of Working Family Renters Paying More Than Half Their Income for Housing Doubles "The number of low- to moderate-income working family renters paying more than half their income for housing has doubled—growing faster than the… more
Update to my Post:" Blogging Does Get You Noticed" posted…
As you may have read in one of my previous posts, I was recently interviewed by the Tampa Tribune concerning the housing market in my area, specifically in regard to those home buyers 55 years old and above. To read my previous post on this topic:… more
Special Session of the Florida Legislature to Tackle Budget Cuts Back…
In a recent post I mentioned that the special session of the Florida legislature to find budget cuts had been cancelled. Now it is back on the calendar. It will take place from October 3 - 12, 2007. The delay was caused by a lack of cooperation… more
Sellers, Don't "Gas" Buyers When They Tour Your Home By…
Today another agent from our office showed one of my homes to a potential buyer. The buyer was very pleased with the home, its layout, the furnishings that were included, and the subdivision. However, she and the agent were practically driven out of… more
Florida Insurance Commissioner Denies Hartford's Rate Increase Request
TALLAHASSEE Fla. (09/12/2007) - Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty today announced the denial of eight rate filings submitted by insurance companies of The Hartford Financial Services Group. The filings submitted were not actuarially… more
US Dept of Housing and Urban Development Suggests 10 Ways to Avoid…
With many homeowners finding themselves with difficulties making their mortgage payments, not to mention insurance and property taxes, the Department of Housing and Urban Development have some tips that can help you avoid the inevitability of… more